President Donald Trump has repeatedly encouraged voters to pretend he’s on the ballot this Election Day. They appear to be taking his advice — and that’s not a good thing for the Republican president or his party.
Early returns suggest major swings away from the GOP, even in Trump’s adopted home state of Florida. Voters nationwide are in the mood for change, according to The AP Voter Poll, which found that roughly three-quarters of voters say they feel “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the country today.
Young voters in particular appear to have shifted dramatically away from the GOP after Trump made inroads with this group in 2024. And among the voters who had Trump in mind when they cast their vote, about twice as many wanted to express opposition to the Republican president as those who wanted to support him.
Most also blamed the Trump administration for high costs: about 6 in 10 say higher than usual prices are “more because of Trump’s policies” rather than “more because of factors outside Trump’s control.”
Democrats are looking to win majorities in the House and Senate, which would curb Trump’s power after he’s faced few limits from a compliant Republican-controlled Congress. Several key governors’ offices also are up for grabs.
It could be a difficult night for Trump’s Republican Party, though the political map, not to mention a fresh round of gerrymandering, could limit Democratic gains.
Here are some takeaways from Tuesday’s midterms:
The Republican president was trying to defy history, which shows that in almost every modern midterm election the party in the White House has lost seats in Congress — sometimes many of them.
Democrats certainly hope that’s the case this year. The party is optimistic, given Trump’s dismal approval ratings and voter concerns about the war with Iran and the surging price of gas and other daily necessities.
The AP Voter Poll suggests most voters are deeply unhappy with Trump, with roughly 6 in 10 saying they disapprove of how he’s handling the presidency. About 70% of voters want Congress to provide more checks and balances on the president.
About 4 in 10 say the economy is the most important issue facing the country, while roughly 3 in 10 say the state of democracy is the top issue, according to the poll, well above the number who said the same about crime, healthcare and immigration.
Views of Trump’s priorities more broadly were also mostly negative: About 6 in 10 voters said Trump places a higher priority on his personal interests than the country’s interests.
Trump was betting that his base of white working-class voters — and an increased share of young people and voters of color — which fueled his presidential victory in 2024, could save his Republican allies if they show up in great numbers.
But things may not be going as he hoped.
The AP Voter Poll indicates a substantial shift in young people moving away from Republicans. Voters under 30 were about evenly split between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris two years ago. But in this election, about 7 in 10 voters in that same age nationally say they supported the Democratic House candidate in their area.
Young voters only make up about 10% of the electorate, according to the poll, which limits the impact of the shift. But it nonetheless makes it harder for the GOP to win.
We’re about to learn whether other elements of the Trump coalition are still strong enough to stave off a political beatdown. The answer will have huge implications for the midterms and the next presidential cycle.
It doesn’t happen often.
Since World War II, the House and Senate have flipped from one party to the other in the same midterm just three times: 1946, 1994 and 2006. The common thread when it does happen is an electorate clamoring for change or broad frustration with the sitting president.
This year has both, and Democrats are trying to capitalize on the opportunity.
Strategists in both parties believe Democrats are on track to win a majority in the House, where Republicans began the current Congress with a slim margin of 220-215.
Democrats got a big boost early in the night when Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper won North Carolina’s Senate contest, giving his party one of the minimum four flips it needs.
At the same time, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and New Hampshire Democrat Chris Pappas won their respective states’ high-profile Senate contests. Ossoff was once viewed as Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbent and the only Democratic senator running in a state Trump won in 2024.
In the House, Democrats are targeting more than 60 districts, including many where Trump won by double digits. But between redistricting and the deep partisan divide between metropolitan and rural America, there simply aren’t as many competitive races as there were in some previous years when the House flipped, including 2018, when Democrats netted 40 more seats.
The Senate, meanwhile, is up for grabs. Republicans currently have a 53-47 advantage. To take control, Democrats must win states that Trump won. Among their targets beyond North Carolina: Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska.
While Trump’s standing has cratered in 2026, Democrats’ brand as a whole isn’t much to brag about. That will leave the party’s major factions — the progressive left flank and the liberal-to-moderate establishment — parsing the outcomes to claim any advantage in Democrats’ tug-of-war over party identity.
Overall, Democrats have at least a small advantage in their perceived handling of several major issues, The AP Voter Poll found, although a significant share of voters say neither party has the edge.
Voters are a little more likely to say Democrats would handle the economy and government corruption better than Republicans. And Democrats have a wider advantage on their handling of transgender issues and healthcare, while voters are more split on which party would better handle issues related to artificial intelligence, immigration and foreign policy.
Despite their slight advantage on some issues, the Democratic Party is not much more popular with voters than the Republicans. Just under half of voters have a “somewhat” or “strongly” favorable view of the Democratic Party, while about 4 in 10 view the GOP positively.
The Democratic Party’s identity is still very much in flux.
Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed is progressives’ highest-profile candidate, and the movement would have a feather in its cap should he defeat Republican Mike Rogers to keep the seat in Democrats’ hands. It’s one thing for New Yorkers to elect Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, as mayor. It’s quite another for an unabashed progressive like El-Sayed to carry a perennial battleground state that helped elect Trump twice.
On the other hand, progressives could lose leverage if their candidates are unsuccessful. Senate losses in Michigan and Minnesota — where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is defending a Democratic-held open seat against Republican Michele Tafoya — could cost Democrats control of the Senate and lead to serious finger pointing.
Still another possibility is that Democrats of all ideological stripes win, piling up Senate, House and gubernatorial victories that depend on urban, suburban and rural voters. That scenario would do little to resolve the discussion over party identity and would all but guarantee a wide-open, rollicking presidential nominating fight.
The Trump-backed gerrymandering push is not going as planned for Republicans.
Rep. Jared Moskowitz won the state’s 25th District, Democrat Pia Dandiya, a first-time candidate, won the 22nd District and Rep. Kathy Castor won reelection in the 14th District. Republicans had redrawn all three districts this spring with the intent of ensuring GOP victories this fall.
That’s bad news for Republicans in other districts in Florida and potentially in Texas — states where the Republican plan counted on getting votes from Latino voters and other nonwhites who backed Trump in 2024. The early results show that has not happened.
Trump set off a tempest in Texas last year when he pushed the most populous Republican-run state to redraw congressional boundaries. California Gov. Gavin Newsom answered by persuading his state’s voters to respond in kind. Democratic and Republican states followed. Along the way, the U.S. Supreme Court gutted part of the Voting Rights Act, thus allowing several Southern states to redraw districts that had been majority or near-majority Black.
On paper, the results suggest a net shift of nine seats to Republicans. But the gerrymandering meant spreading conservative supporters across more districts. In Florida and Texas, especially, the Republican plan counted on getting help from Latinos and other nonwhite voters who backed Trump in 2024 — and that may not happen.
It’s a question not usually asked in U.S. politics.
The world is watching to see whether the president leverages the vast resources of the federal government to interfere with the election. Based on recent rhetoric, legal action and his yearslong record of promoting baseless claims of widespread voter fraud in elections he loses, there is reason to take the threat seriously.
In recent days, the Trump administration hinted at federal intervention in Alaska after a judge rejected his Justice Department’s lawsuit seeking to block certification of the Senate race if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. Trump called the situation “voter fraud at the highest level.” The administration also tried and failed to block California from counting 20,000 ballots from people the federal government has identified as “likely” noncitizens.
Trump’s Department of Justice is sending about 1,000 department staff to observe voting and ensure federal laws are being followed. Election observers are more concerned that Trump may dispatch federal immigration agents or the National Guard to intimidate voters in large Democratic precincts.
The Trump administration says it has no current plans to do so.
Still, a vast election protection effort will be on display this week, featuring hundreds of Democratic groups and government watchdogs.
© 2026 The Canadian Press
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